The Mideast's New Spring of Freedom
By SAAD EDDIN IBRAHIM
The hotly contested presidential election in Iran between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is still unfolding, with uncertain results. But regardless of the outcome, the events in Iran are symptomatic of a larger change in the political landscape of the Middle East -- the revival of a regional freedom movement, which stalled in 2006 after the election of Hamas in Palestine.
The results of the recent parliamentary elections in Lebanon and Kuwait clearly indicate that Islamist parties have lost significant ground to their moderate counterparts. By Middle Eastern standards, these two countries, along with Turkey, have well-established democratic traditions.
Young Iranians show inspiring determination to achieve similar gains in their own country. Scholars maintain that societies that manage to have four or more consecutive elections will usually achieve an irreversible democratic transition. Without direct visible foreign intervention, Turkey, Lebanon and Kuwait may have such a transition well under way. The fear that Islamists might somehow impede the process has not yet been realized. Leaders of competing Islamic forces in both Lebanon and Kuwait have conceded defeat. That includes the much-demonized Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah.
Along with the dimming influence of Islamists, President Barack Obama's Cairo speech seems to have energized the democratic spirit in the Middle East. In Lebanon and Iran, voters turned out in record numbers. In his speech, Mr. Obama cited the imperative of upholding minority rights, singling out the Christian Maronites of Lebanon and the Copts of Egypt. He also emphasized the rights of women to education and full inclusion in public life. At least in the case of Lebanon, both Maronites and women responded by voting at an unprecedented rate (60%).
Similar results were announced last month in Kuwait, where for the first time high voter turnout elected four women to parliament despite fierce resistance from tribal and Islamic elements. And in Iran, women and youth are leading a mass democratic uprising in cities from Tehran to Esfahan. This could be Iran's own Green Revolution, reminiscent of the Velvet, Rose and Orange revolutions.
Beyond the Obama effect, it seems clear that, with a high degree of sociopolitical mobilization, Islamic parties can be cut down to size. It's an encouraging sign that Islamists have suffered repeated electoral defeats despite efforts to capitalize on widespread voter apathy and the fragmentation of secular parties.
The defeat of the Hezbollah coalition in Lebanon was a major blow to its hard-line supporters in Iran led by Mr. Ahmadinejad. If he loses to his challenger, Mr. Mousavi, then moderates could return to power in Iran and strengthen regional democratic forces at large. If the forthcoming elections in Iraq proceed without any major setback, then the entire belt from Iran to Turkey, including Lebanon and Kuwait, would be on the democratic path.
Regardless of the gains of the Middle Eastern moderates, Islamists will continue to be an integral part of the region's political landscape. But they should neither be pathologically feared nor cavalierly excluded. Rather, they should be actively engaged and encouraged to evolve into Muslim democratic parties akin to the Christian Democrats in Europe. By implicitly recognizing Hamas, President Obama may be leaning in this direction.
The next major test for democracy will be the upcoming elections in Egypt, the most populous Arab country and a strategic U.S. ally. Egyptian bloggers have made their Web sites and Twitter accounts available to their Iranian counterparts after the mullahs disrupted Iran's Internet. The youth's use of information technology has proven to be a surprising match to the brutal autocrats and rigid theocrats they oppose. The Egyptians' display of solidarity with the Iranians proves their commitment to the fundamental principles of democracy.
Mr. Obama should insist that the Egyptian regime allow free and fair elections. Given the elections in Lebanon, Kuwait and Iran, he and his advisers should resist overreacting to the mistakes of the Bush administration by backtracking on democracy promotion. A win for democracy in Egypt will consolidate what's already a trend in the Middle East: the flowering of a Spring of Freedom.
Mr. Ibrahim, an Egyptian sociologist and human-rights advocate, was imprisoned by the Mubarak regime. He has lived in exile since 2007 and is currently a visiting professor at Harvard.