Al-Qaeda's second-in-command Al-Zawahiri threatens the United States, Israel and France: Our Special Report.

ABC News

PHOTO: Zawahiri

In a 90-minute question-and-answer video released to Islamist forums on Monday, al-Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri extended a truce offer from the terrorist group to President Obama if the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan. However, "the 'mujahedeen' opened the doors to start a new relationship, but (the Americans) insist that their relationships with the Muslim world must be based on hurting us and oppressing us," he warned.

THE MESSAGE

Obama equals Bush

"Obama can come with all the eloquent words he has, but it is nothing but illusions," Al-Zawahiri said. "What new did Obama bring us?" he asked. "He brought us the bombing of Gaza where 1,000 martyrs died. He brought us the destruction in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. What else? He expanded the American prisons so they can absorb more innocent Muslims," he said in the video titled 'The Realities of Jihad and the Fallacies of Hypocrisy.'

"After seven and a half years, their (the American) campaign failed in Iraq and in Afghanistan just like it failed in Somalia and will fail in Pakistan," (...) Obama is like a wolf whose fangs tear your flesh and whose paws slit your face and then he calls on you to talk about peace," Al-Zawahiri said.

"The only reason the American administration changed its policy from Bush's motto that you are either with them or against them to Obama's saying that he wants to deal with the Islamic world based on a new policy (is) because of the heavy losses that they suffered from by the hands of the 'mujahedeen'," he said.

"Obama wants a Palestinian state that works as a branch for the Israeli government," he said. But "Israel is a crime that needs to be wiped out," he said as he drew parallels between Bush's and Obama's policies. "The promises of the two states and ending the settlements were made by Bush, so what's new? This is the continuation of the same Zionist crusader crime against Muslims since the end of World War II," he charged.

U.S. to seize Pakistani nukes

Also, he has urged Pakistanis to rise up against US forces, which he said had occupied their country. Americans are striving to "break up this nuclear-capable country and transform it into tiny fragments, loyal to and dependent on the neo-crusaders", he said. "The only hope to save Pakistan from this disastrous fate is jihad," They "are are today occupying Afghanistan and Pakistan, so it is the duty of every Muslim in Pakistan to rise up to fight them," he said in the eight-minute, 49-second recording. "[If] we stand by passively without offering due support to the mujahidin, we shall not only contribute to the destruction of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but we shall also deserve the painful punishment of almighty Allah."

Israel is a crime that must disappear

Zawahiri also emphasized the jihad against the Jewish State. "There is no liberation of Palestine but by way of jihad," al-Zawahiri said. "I already told the Palestinians in the past that this is the only proper way and that Israel has many vulnerable interests, making it easy to hit." Israel is a "crime that must disappear" and "Palestine belongs to the Muslims" he said. "If the Muslim nation wants to liberate Palestine, then they must assist the mujahideen in Iraq, for only then can they help the mujahideen in Palestine."

France is a priority target

Al-Zawahiri harshly criticized French President Nicolas Sarkozy who said last June that the head-to-toe burqa is a sign of women's "subservience" that was "not welcome" in France. "France claims to be secular while its heart flows with hate towards Islam," Zawahiri said. He added that France always backed Jewish efforts to take control of Palestine and that France is going to pay for all her crimes.

Al Qaeda calls for regimes' change

"There is no chance for change in Egypt except through Islam. And the regime can only be replaced by force. This is so for all Arab states - only by force and revolution."

OUR ANALYSIS

This sixth interview of Ayman Al-Zawahiri has been released as it is being said that Al Qaeda is losing ground in Pakistan and has almost disappeared from Iraq where the three military forces involved (Iraq, Iran and the United States) pose great difficulties to a durable presence of Al Qaeda in Iraq although the interests of Iran and the United States contradict as well. First purpose of this interview was for Al Qaeda to tell everyone it is still active and still has the "freedom" and the "capability" to draw world's attention with video messages that contain direct instructions for "Jihad" and list countries as targets.

The analysts identified three main countries which seem to have been designated as "priority targets" for Al Qaeda: the United States, Israel and France. These three countries have been repeatedly threatened in the past. If secularism is to justify the threat of Al Qaeda against France, it is France's engagement in Afghanistan and Somalia, its growing military presence in the Middle East with its new military base in Abu Dhabi, its fight against piracy and its interests in North Africa which makes it a prime target. Against the "model" of Al Qaeda, France offers a model of a developed country where, somehow, secularism does not deny religious freedom. "France, even more than the United States, is hated by radical militants since the people who live there are mostly happy and without religion being a central element of the political system and / or social development. In fact, religion stays at home and in the end, it works rather well even though the relation between state and religion is still very debated," an analyst said. "The terrorist threat is real, it is the same everywhere in Europe but these militants might prefer to strike France for all these reasons."

Concerning the United States, Al Qaeda made no change to its speech except that it directly attacks Barack Obama. Again, it's the annoyance that seems to prevail rather than the continuation of a rational strategy. Obama embodies the hope for a majority of the world's population and his speech in Cairo echoed strongly and rather positively in the Islamic population. The new administration seems to be much more demanding towards Israel and its repeated demands to freeze settlement gave credit to the willingness of Obama to force peace and oblige each party to fulfill their obligations. Even cautious and suspicious, the Palestinian population is not impervious to it. If speeches are not enough to stabilize the Middle East, the Obama administration succeeds in monopolizing the media at the expense of the strategy of Al Qaeda. By demonizing Obama, Al Qaeda is increasing the latter's presence in the media and blurs its own message which gets more and more confusing.

Regarding Israel, recent intelligence has increased fear of terrorist acts in Israel or against Israeli citizens abroad. The military authorities have increased their surveillance of the border accross Lebanon and said they expect new provocations on behalf of Hezbollah and Hamas. The rapprochement of Syria with the United States does not favor the interests of Al Qaeda in the region. Note that before fighting in Palestine, Al Qaeda says priority is fighting in Iraq.

Concerning Pakistan and Afghanistan, Al Qaeda is still powerful and resilient. The sophistication of recent attacks against NATO troops and the offensive capability deployed in the Swat valley have shown that both the Taliban and Al Qaeda have made a "qualitative leap" in their operations, guerrilla as (para-)military. The Pakistani political life is still very hectic and the fragile stability of the country is dependent on the influence of the military. Concerns over the security of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is real even if seizing a single nuke would be a huge achievement on behalf of the terrorists. But our analysts point out that since 9/11 has been possible then it would be pretentious to believe that such a possibility is science-fiction. By explaining that the United States wants to seize the nuclear arsenal, al-Zawahiri is trying to move the Pakistani people and to influence those who prefer the Pakistani weapon in the hands of Muslim brothers rather than in those of Western infidels. An attempt that analysts deem futile although it is psychological tactic that may be more realistic than the dogmatic refusal of a contingency which is the absolute nightmare of counterterrorism.

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